What’s happening in the market?
Domaine du Comte Liger Belair is the top-traded producer of the week so far, with the 2020 and 2021 vintages of several cuvees changing hands. Burgundy is ahead of Bordeaux as the top-traded region by value, with a 35.7% share of traded value.
First Growths are leading Bordeaux’s trade, with Château Margaux 2010 in the top position. Following a price dip in February, this week’s trades at c.£5,700 per 12×75 mark a return to Q3 2024 prices.
Today’s deep dive: Gavin Quinney’s 2024 Bordeaux harvest report
Gavin Quinney (Château Bauduc) has released his report on the 2024 Bordeaux growing season. According to him, ‘2024 is another in a series of small harvests since 2020 – indeed, the smallest crop overall since 1991’. While a warm, dry summer had a moderating effect on an otherwise wet and cool vintage, there will be wines that have suffered at the hands of mildew and poor fruit set.
The weather and the wines
The 2024 vintage is marked by heavy rainfall – the highest levels since the ‘unwanted’ 1992 vintage. A very wet March heightened the risk of mildew, which Quinney estimates may account for 20-25% of the reduction in yield. While ‘a rainy vintage’, he says, ‘a really good summer from mid-July to the last week of August… certainly improved the quality of the wines’. The cool and damp start to the growing season, however, resulted in ‘fewer bunches and loss of yield through poor fruit set’. He notes that poor fruit set makes grapes particularly susceptible to millerandage and coulure (malformed berries and gaps in bunches). Still, technological advancements in the vineyard and winery mean that producers are better prepared for inclement weather patterns.
For the 2023 vintage, many critics noted that the need for green harvesting and careful selection – both expensive practices – created a rift in the quality of wines produced by châteaux with cash on hand and those without. Quinney’s assessment of the 2024 growing season hints that this may again be the case.
The yields and the crop
2024 saw low yields across Bordeaux’s top appellations, with Margaux, St. Julien, Pauillac, St. Estephe and Pomerol coming in over 20% below their 20-year average. ‘We haven’t seen the average yield in Pauillac being below 30 hl/ha in over 20 years apart from in 2013’, says Qinnney, though adding that ‘the quality in 2024 is better than that difficult year’.
While poor weather was to blame for the lower-than-average yields, the crop — at least for regional level wines — was further diminished by a reduction in vineyard size. In 2024, 94,700 hectares of vineyard were declared for Bordeaux AOPs, down from 193,200 for the 2023 vintage and 107,700 for the 2022. 6,000 hectares of vines were pulled up in 2024 under the French government’s subsidized scheme. Other growers, in an effort to retain more control over their land, pulled vines outside of the scheme. Quinney raised concerns over some other ‘vineyards that have simply been abandoned because the work can be expensive’.
The state of play
As we approach this year’s En Primeur campaign, release pricing is the foremost topic of discussion. While the crop is small this year, supply and demand remain out of balance. Quinney estimates that 30% of the declared hectares are no longer economically viable. Negociants and merchants are calling for prices that reflect market realities, but can smaller producers viably release their wines at these levels?
For the wealthier châteaux, low yields may be a blessing in disguise. The signs of a successful campaign are strong sales and wines not falling in value before (and after) bottling. For both of those to happen, châteaux will need to reduce prices. In theory, there should be less reluctance to drop prices on a low-yielding, middling-quality vintage than one more akin to 2016 or 2022.
Liv-ex analysis is drawn from the world’s most comprehensive database of fine wine prices. The data reflects the real-time activity of Liv-ex’s 620+ merchant members from across the globe. Together they represent the largest pool of liquidity in the world – currently £140m of bids and offers across 20,000 wines.
