What’s happening in the market?
Château Lafite Rothschild 2021 is the top-traded wine by value so far this week, changing hands in high volumes at £3,944 per 12×75 and in low volumes at £3,810 – flat on its lowest-ever trade price.
Domaine Jean Louis Chave’s Hermitage 1990 is in second place, leading the Rhône to a 7.1% share of traded value.
Today’s deep dive: the Masseto index
- The Masseto index sits below its key Simple Moving Averages but is approaching a critical convergence zone which may provide support.
- Recent fluctuations in the Masseto index indicate some market uncertainty – a lack of commitment to the medium-term downward price trend and bearish momentum.
- The index has potential to recommit to the downward trend, but its strong demand-supply balance may protect prices – especially of more frequently traded vintages.
In the January Market Report, we highlighted Masseto as having the highest bid:offer ratio in the Italy 100, which itself has the highest bid:offer ratio of any of the Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 sub-indices. The wine’s ratio sustained rises over the past three months – uncommon in current market conditions. With supply and demand in balance, prices should, in theory, stabilise. Does technical analysis suggest the likelihood of positive performance?
The Liv-ex Masseto index has sustained growth since its inception with very few corrections until 2022 when a more pronounced bearish phase began. In November 2024, the price declined beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (measured from the 2019 lows) trading below the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) for 7, 20, and 50 months, highlighting the medium-term bearish trend. In December, however, the index rebounded slightly, forming the beginnings of a double bottom pattern. The index now sits just 1% below its SMA and 5.2% above the Lower Bollinger Band (BB), which often acts as a dynamic support.
In November, the bearish divergence arising in Masseto’s Relative Strength Index indicated strong bearish momentum. December’s upward shift, however, demonstrates some market uncertainty – a lack of commitment to the downward trend. The Lower Bollinger Band has continued to flatten, providing some protection from further downward price swings. In the coming months, the long term trendline will converge with this Lower Bollinger Band and 38.2% retracement level, forming a critical support zone. This convergence signals reduced volatility and the potential for a decisive move in the near future, either upward or downward.
Going forward, the chart analysis reveals two potential scenarios. In the bearish case, if the price fails to hold above the 745-750 support zone, it is likely to test 700 or lower horizontal levels. On the other hand, if the price finds support and continues to rebound from the 745-750 range, it could attempt to regain strength by moving back toward the upper Bollinger Band and higher moving averages. A sustained recovery would require the price to decisively break above the SMA20 and SMA50, indicating a return of bullish momentum.
Masseto 2021, the top-traded vintage of 2024 and so far this year, has traded consistently around the £6,000 mark since its release earlier last year at £6,200 per 12×75. The trades hovering well above Market Price in the chart below are of large bottle formats.
Liv-ex trades of Masseto 2021
The story here is not a common one – as with most wines as illiquid as Masseto (~2,500 cases per year), prices can be volatile. This is true of the second top-traded Masseto vintage of 2024, the 2020. Trade prices fell sharply in July from a peak of around £6,356 down to £5,760. Since then, prices have exhibited more stability.
Liv-ex trades of Masseto 2020
There tends to be some fluctuation of Masseto scores depending on the critic. Jane Anson, for example, awarded 98 points to the 2020 and 95 to the 2021 while Antonio Galloni awarded 98 and 100, respectively. Scores may not be reliable predictors of price performance here, but where there is demand, floors do appear to be performing. For less-frequently traded vintages, prices remain volatile.
Liv-ex trades of Masseto 2018
Liv-ex analysis is drawn from the world’s most comprehensive database of fine wine prices. The data reflects the real-time activity of Liv-ex’s 620+ merchant members from across the globe. Together they represent the largest pool of liquidity in the world – currently £100m of bids and offers across 20,000 wines.
