What’s happening in the market?
So far this week, Le Pin is the top-traded wine by value. The 2012 and 2006 vintages traded in OWC at £21,200 and £20,100 per 12×75 respectively (10.2% and 2.3% below market).
Fittingly, given the content of today’s deep dive, Dom Pérignon is the second top-traded wine. Alongside the 2013, which has traded most actively, the rarer 1964 and 1996 vintages have also changed hands.
Today’s deep dive: the Dom Pérignon index
- Technical analysis indicators suggest a continuation of the current bearish market for Dom Pérignon.
- While the bid-to-offer ratio has fallen, the total value of both bids and offers has increased month-on-month.
- More liquid vintages of Dom Pérignon, the 2008 in particular, have exhibited notable price stability in recent months.
Since the peak of the market in December 2022, the Dom Pérignon index has fallen by 21.5%. In 2024, prices have stabilised slightly — the index fell 107 points over the course of 2023, by contrast to only 11 so far this year. Still, the index now sits below both its 7- and 20-month Simple Moving Averages (SMA7 and SMA20) — an indicator that we have not yet seen the end to downward price movements. According to technical analysis, the continuation of the current bearish trend is further reinforced by the SMA7’s recent downward cross over the SMA50.
Momentum has been firmly bearish since August 2023 when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell below the ’50 line’. Currently at 38.7, however, the RSI remains above 30, the threshold at which a wine is considered oversold.
The total value of offers has increased by 35.6% over the past two months, but the average offer price has fallen by 12.2%. While this appears to have drawn bids — the total value increasing by 24.5% over the same period — the bid:offer ratio has nevertheless been driven down. As of today, the ratio sits at 0.31, below the 0.5 threshold level, which we have previously identified as an indicator of future price stability.
On a positive note, the lower Bollinger Band has been flattening since February this year, indicating decreasing volatility. This lower band, around 520 basis points (8.8% below the current level), may act as a support in the coming months, particularly as it converges with the trendline and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Overall, technical analysis provides no clear indication of an imminent reversal of the Dom Pérignon index’s current bearish trend. Even so, there are vintage-dependent pockets of relative stability available for market participants.
The commercial success of the Grand Marques has likely had a moderating effect on the index’s volatility. Dom Pérignon 2008, for example, is the single most frequently traded wine of the year so far. The wine’s consistently tight bid-offer spread has protected its price from major swings. Rather, its price has declined at a steadier rate than the broader market. Year-to-date, Dom Pérignon 2008’s Mid Price is up 4.4%; the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 is down 7.0%. At its peak in late 2022, it traded consistently around £2,500 per 12×75. Its price has now stabilised between £1,800 and £2,000. Bottle size premiums have also decreased over time. In 2020, magnums often traded at a 30% premium to market; this fell to c.20% at the peak and has now fallen further to c.15%.
Liv-ex trades of Dom Pérignon 2008
By contrast, the 2013 vintage underwent a swift correction after its initial release in January 2023, trading relatively infrequently and exhibiting more volatility than the 2008 vintage. As of September 2024, prices have stabilised around £1,350, and trading activity has picked up substantially.
Liv-ex trades of Dom Pérignon 2013
There are currently 63 LIVE opportunities for Dom Pérignon on the exchange. The tightest markets are listed below.
Top five tightest markets
| Wine | Highest bid (12×75) | Lowest offer (12×75) | Spread | Last trade (12×75) | Market Price (12×75) |
| Dom P. 2004 | £1,578 | £1,620 | 2.59% | £1,600 | £1,590 |
| Dom P. 2008 | £1,830 | £1,880 | 2.66% | £1,858 | £1,850 |
| Dom P. 2015 | £1,372 | £1,416 | 3.11% | £1,424 | £1,450 |
| Dom P. 2013 | £1,340 | £1,390 | 3.60% | £1,436 | £1,450 |
| Dom P. 1996 | £3,100 | £3,500 | 11.43% | £3,500 | £3,400 |
Liv-ex analysis is drawn from the world’s most comprehensive database of fine wine prices. The data reflects the real-time activity of Liv-ex’s 620+ merchant members from across the globe. Together they represent the largest pool of liquidity in the world – currently £100m of bids and offers across 20,000 wines.
