- The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 fell 0.7% in December, closing at 414.58. Since its inception 20 years ago, the index is up 314.6%. However, year-on-year, it is down 13.6%.
- Of its sub-indices, only the Italy 100 recorded a positive movement last month.
- Among the top price performers in the index were wines from Piedmont, Champagne and Bordeaux.
*made using the Liv-ex Charting Tool.
The Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 fell 0.7% in December, ending a year of declines to close at 414.58.
The 0.7% decline last month was about half as steep as the 1.5% fall recorded at the end of November. Nonetheless, year-on-year, the Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 is down 13.6%, having retraced most of the growth it recorded in 2022.
20 years on from its inception, however, the index is up 314.6%, and it remains up 14.1% on the 5-year scale.
In December, the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100, the industry benchmark, dropped 1.1%, an improvement on last month’s 1.3% fall. The Liv-ex Fine Wine 50, which tracks the daily price movements of First Growths, fell by a more modest 0.8% in December (NB: the index is updated daily).
Trade value and volume on the exchange dipped in December, but far less significantly than in December 2022. Market breadth also contracted month-on-month, with 1,876 individual wines (LWIN11s) changing hands last month compared with 2,181 in November.
The Italy 100 starts the year on a positive note
*Made using the Liv-ex Charting Tool.
In December, the Italy 100 was the only sub-index of the Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 to record a positive movement, rising by 0.4%.
Interestingly, of its components, 36 saw an increase in their Mid-Price month-on-month, 21 remained flat and 43 saw their Mid-Price dip; the positive movements, while outnumbered, outweighed their negative counterparts.
Piedmont producers had much to do with the success of the Italy 100 in December, accounting for seven of the top ten best-performing wines in the index last month.
Among the best-performing Piedmont labels featured three-time 100-pointer Giacomo Conterno, Barolo, Monfortino Riserva 2010, which last traded in December at £13,028 per case, below its Market Price of £14,400 per 12×75. The wine was awarded top marks by Antonio Galloni (Vinous), Monica Larner (The Wine Advocate) and James Suckling.
Giacomo Conterno, Barolo, Monfortino Riserva 2010 trades on Liv-ex
Technical Analysis of the Liv-ex 1000
The price of the Liv-ex 1000 continued its decline in December and reached the tentative accelerated ascending trendline, as predicted in our November update. It remains to be seen whether this level will hold as a support, but proponents of technical analysis would continue to expect the price to respond to the Simple Moving Average 50 months (SMA50) at 409, which is still rising.
The acceleration of the bearish momentum we first discussed in our August update continued in December with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) plunging to abyssal levels. The gap between the RSI’s SMA20 and the RSI line is beginning to shrink as of December. However, a possible change in momentum direction will only be considered if and when we see a break of the RSI ’30 line’ and of the ascending trendline on the indicator.
We continue to see the 409-417 zone as a major ‘live’ support zone. However, technical analysis indicators caution that, should price convincingly break through the SMA50, there could be significantly more downside to come.
As things stand at the end of December 2023, the bearish momentum and increased volatility (as illustrated by Bollinger Bands opening up further) are pointing to a continuation of the downward trend, at least in the short term.
Liv-ex recently published a guide outlining how technical analysis can be applied to the fine wine market.
What is the Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000?
The Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 Index is broadest measure of the market. It represents the price movement of 1,000 of the most sought-after fine wines on the world’s most active and liquid marketplace. Stretching back over 20 years, the Liv-ex 1000 is comprised of seven sub-indices from across the world: the Bordeaux 500, the Bordeaux Legends 40, the Burgundy 150, the Champagne 50, the Rhône 100, the Italy 100 and the Rest of the World 60.
All Liv-ex indices are calculated using our Mid Price: the mid-point between the highest live bid and lowest live offer on the market. These are the firm commitments to buy and sell at that price; transactional data rather than list prices. It represents the actual trading activity of 620+ of the world’s leading fine wine merchants. Because Liv-ex doesn’t itself trade, this data is truly independent and reliable.
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