What’s happening in the market?
With Belair-Monange 2024 released on Tuesday at £1,060 per 12×75 ex-London, the 2016 vintage (rated 96 points by Neal Martin) has pulled ahead as the week’s top wine by traded value. It changed hands in high volumes at £840 per 12×75.
Petrus1998 and Cos D’Estournel 2018 are in second and third place. Cos 18 is showing some evidence of price consolidation: trading consistently at the £1,050 per 12×75 mark since October 2024, with volumes picking up at or above this level over the last month.
Today’s deep dive: Château Beychevelle
Château Beychevelle has a reputation for popularity on the Asian market – its Dragon Boat label symbolises luck in some cultures. At one time, this was certainly true, but the dragon year (in the Chinese zodiac) has passed, and the Asian market remains fairly subdued. In 2019, Asian buyers accounted for almost half of all Beychevelle purchasing. This year, that figure has fallen to just 9.6%. Nevertheless, it is Asian buyers who account for most of the wine’s bids – 57.3% of current exposure (by value).
Prices of recent vintages display a clear patter – they increase quickly with age. Though this may make intuitive sense, for a region like Bordeaux (where volumes are high enough reduce the effects of age-based scarcity), it is more common to see higher prices for vintages with better scores or better general reputations.
Carruades de Lafite, for which Asian buyers account for 88.2% of its bid exposure, is another example of a wine with clear price appreciation with age.
Carruades and Beychevelle differ from one another in some key areas, however. For one, Beychevelle receives significantly higher ratings and is much less expensive than Carruades. Beychevelle has also traded 50% more frequently than Carruades this year.
While Beychevelle has indeed found popularity amongst Asian buyers, we need not necessarily fear that a bubble, like Carruades’, has formed (read more here). The positive indicators (as detailed below) may be taken with a smaller pinch of salt.
Technical analysis of the Château Beychevelle index
The Liv-ex Beychevelle Index is currently trading at 166.3, having recently bounced upwards at a critical juncture where multiple technical indicators suggest a potential shift in momentum. The recent downward trajectory has brought prices close to a significant support zone (162-164), aligning with the horizontal and oblique trendlines. If this level continues to hold – and the recently formed double bottom is a positive indicator that it will — it could act as a springboard for a recovery.
On the other hand, where the 20-month Simple Moving Average (SMA20) is about to cross below the SMA50, we are facing an impending ‘death cross’. This is considered a bearish signal, often indicating extended weakness in price action.
Another notable feature of the chart is the widening Bollinger Bands (BB), reflecting increased volatility. This suggests that a large move could be on the horizon. A decisive break below 150 could open the door for accelerated selling, whereas a recovery above 167 (SMA7) and subsequently 181 (SMA50) would confirm renewed bullish sentiment. Recent upward movement has made the latter possibility more likely.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) entered oversold territory for the first time since inception in 2024, but it has been flattening over the last few months and has now crossed back over the ‘30 line’. Additionally, past bearish divergences between price and RSI, which preceded the latest correction, highlight the importance of monitoring momentum shifts for trend validation. The cross of the RSI above its SMA14 in 2020 preceded a bullish phase. This will be a signal to watch for in the coming months.
Liv-ex analysis is drawn from the world’s most comprehensive database of fine wine prices. The data reflects the real-time activity of Liv-ex’s 620+ merchant members from across the globe. Together they represent the largest pool of liquidity in the world – currently £140m of bids and offers across 20,000 wines.
