What’s happening in the market?
Château Haut-Brion 2021 is the top-traded wine of the week so far, changing hands between £2,650 and £2,800 per 12×75 – a 22.0% – 26.1% discount to its ex-château release price.
Cristal 2016 is in second place, trading 14.1% below its ex-London release price.
Today’s deep dive: Château Les Carmes Haut-Brion
Averaging percent returns (Market Price to ex-London release price) for each of the Bordeaux 500’s component wines (the 2012-2021 vintages), Château Les Carmes Haut-Brion is one of the best performers – second only to Petrus. While receiving impressive ratings, its ex-London price was kept under £1,000 until the release of the 2022 vintage (scored 96-points by Neal Martin and 100 by Antonio Galloni (Vinous)). With prices sustaining at reasonable levels, they have not had as far to fall through the downturn of the market as other Bordeaux wines. A technical analysis of the Carmes Haut-Brion index indicates that prices may not have any further to fall at all. A rarity during these market conditions, there is evidence to support the likelihood of trend reversal. Particularly given the stark improvements in quality over the past decade, Carmes Haut-Brion is one to watch.
| Vintage | Market Price | Ex-London | MP to ex-London | Ex-neg. | MP to ex-neg. | Ex-chat. | MP to ex-chat. |
| 2023 | £768 | £912 | -15.8% | £785 | -2.1% | £654 | 17.4% |
| 2022 | £1,264 | £1,320 | -4.2% | £1,121 | 12.8% | £934 | 35.3% |
| 2021 | £650 | £948 | -31.4% | £823 | -21.1% | £686 | -5.3% |
| 2020 | £874 | £948 | -7.8% | £806 | 8.4% | £672 | 30.1% |
| 2019 | £870 | £816 | 6.6% | £695 | 25.2% | £579 | 50.2% |
| 2018 | £964 | £828 | 16.4% | £729 | 32.2% | £608 | 58.7% |
| 2017 | £720 | £672 | 7.1% | £569 | 26.5% | £474 | 51.8% |
| 2016 | £1,248 | £670 | 86.3% | £586 | 112.9% | £489 | 155.5% |
| 2015 | £1,070 | £480 | 122.9% | £418 | 155.9% | – | – |
| 2014 | £900 | £315 | 185.7% | £281 | 220.8% | £234 | 285.0% |
| 2013 | £853 | £324 | 163.3% | £286 | 198.6% | £238 | 258.3% |
| 2012 | £777 | £345 | 125.2% | £306 | 153.9% | £255 | 204.6% |
| 2011 | £852 | £385 | 121.3% | £348 | 145.0% | £290 | 194.0% |
| 2010 | £1,100 | £425 | 158.8% | £394 | 179.3% | £328 | 235.2% |
| 2009 | £900 | £445 | 102.2% | £384 | 134.1% | £324 | 178.0% |
| 2008 | £901 | £275 | 227.6% | £230 | 291.7% | £193 | 365.8% |
Technical analysis
- Prices have been evolving within a well-defined descending channel since January 2023.
- The convergence zone of the Oblique trendline and the channel’s lower band appears to be holding as a support level.
- If the index breaks above the channel’s upper band, this will provide confirmation of a trend reversal.
- A bullish divergence between price and RSI, decreased volatility and the convergence of key supports point to the likelihood of upward price movement.
* This index was calculated using a rolling average of the Market Prices of the 10 most recent physical vintages. In general, Liv-ex indices are created using Mid Price. As with Mid Price indices, Market Price indices are smoothed when the oldest vintage is removed and the newest added.
The Liv-ex Carmes Haut-Brion Index is currently trading at 213, a 17.1% pullback from its high at 257 in January 2023. Prices have been evolving within a well-defined descending channel.
The index is approaching a crucial convergence zone of key support levels – the oblique trendline and horizontal support level around the 200 mark. The index recently bounced at the intersection of the channel’s lower band and the oblique trendline, validating this zone as a strong support. The 20-Month Simple Moving Average aligns with the upper boundary of the descending channel, around the 220 level, making it a critical resistance area.
If prices around the support zone are successful in generating buying interest and the index can decisively break above the upper band of the descending channel, technical analysis would suggest the likelihood of a rebound. The volume of bids for Carmes Haut Brion has been rising steadily since August 2024, indicating renewed interest from buyers.
The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, signalling a period of reduced volatility. Historically, such compression has preceded significant price movements. While the index should be monitored closely – price movements in either direction are possible — an upward resolution appears increasingly likely.
Momentum indicators further reinforce this perspective. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown a bullish divergence — the index making lower lows while the RSI makes higher lows — suggesting that downward momentum is waning. Additionally, the RSI is approaching a crossover with its SMA20, a traditional signal that upside momentum is building.
Overall, technical analysis presents a compelling case for the Carmes Haut-Brion Index; it appears likely that it may soon find its floor. While short-term weakness persists, the confluence of support levels, RSI divergence, and Bollinger Band behaviour suggests that a trend reversal may be imminent. Should the price successfully break above key resistance levels, a shift in sentiment could lead to a sustained upward move.
Liv-ex analysis is drawn from the world’s most comprehensive database of fine wine prices. The data reflects the real-time activity of Liv-ex’s 620+ merchant members from across the globe. Together they represent the largest pool of liquidity in the world – currently £140m of bids and offers across 20,000 wines.
