What’s happening in the market?
2021 Bordeaux is trading actively this week, with Château Mouton Rothschild, Château Pavie and Château Lafite Rothschild all amongst the top five wines by traded value. All three traded below their ex-château release prices.
Burgundy is having a strong week so far, taking 25.0% of traded value. Domaine de la Romanée-Conti is the region’s top-traded producer, with several vintages of Romanée-Conti Grand Cru changing hands.
Today’s deep dive: the Giacomo Conterno, Barolo di Monfortino Riserva Index
- The Monfortino index, having been relatively stable until mid-2024, has now decisively broken below its long term trendline and its key simple moving averages.
- The next critical support – the convergence of its 2020 lows and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level — sits around 113, 6.6% below its current level (121).
- Despite demand outweighing supply (by volume of bids and offers), trade has been relatively infrequent since the start of the year. Neither buyers nor sellers appear to be willing to move.
As the broader market fell in 2023, the Giacomo Conterno Barolo di Monfortino Riserva index appeared resilient, hovering around135 until mid-2024. It continued, however, to make progressively lower highs as the Bollinger Bands narrowed, hinting that a subsequent break (following a price squeeze) would be in the downward direction. In June last year, the index fell decisively below 130, rebounding briefly as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed below the 50-line, before recommitting to its bearish trajectory. The index has now fallen to 121 with its RSI is set to fall below 30, pushing the Monfortino Riserva close to oversold territory.
With the index now well below its key Simple Moving Averages and little other support available, technical analysis presents the horizontal support, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 113. This would represent a further 6.6% price decline. Considering the 2013 vintage, the best bid sits 6.4% below the last trade, close its 2020 lows. This support level, in some cases, aligns with buyer expectations.
Liv-ex trades of Giacomo Conterno Monfortino Riserva 2013
The Bollinger Bands are continuing to widen, allowing for this further downward movement. As the index tracks the Lower Band, we may expect a temporary bounce back or capitulation, as was the case in late 2024, when traded volumes increased and price rose. The start of 2025, however, has seen relatively infrequent trade of Monfortino. On the one hand, prices may yet have further to fall before they attract buyers. On the other, sellers may be unwilling to further lower their prices. As it stands, the current average bid:offer spread sits at 31.3%.
Across vintages, Monfortino’s bid:offer ratio is sitting at a healthy 0.77. The value of bids has seen a sharp increase over the past few months, the monthly average more than tripling between November 2024 and February 2025. In terms of volume, bids have now surpassed offers. Perhaps unsurprisingly given the tiny production numbers, non-sequential releases (est. 600 cases in selected years), and exceptionally high scores, demand is by no means lacking. And yet, this has not resulted in increases in trade. Neither buyers nor sellers are willing to move, but the substantial uptick in demand does endow sellers with slightly more power to hold their prices. Moreover, demand for back-vintages may be further boosted by the upcoming release of the 2019.
Liv-ex analysis is drawn from the world’s most comprehensive database of fine wine prices. The data reflects the real-time activity of Liv-ex’s 620+ merchant members from across the globe. Together they represent the largest pool of liquidity in the world – currently £100m of bids and offers across 20,000 wines.
