The average bid:offer spread of the Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 has, on average, been trending upward since 2021. Before the turn of the market (corresponding to the September 2022 peak in the chart below), the average bid:offer spread sat comfortably 8% and 9%. Since peaking at 13.8% in September 2023, the spread has fluctuated between 9.0% and 11.5%, with buyers increasingly cautious and sellers holding their offers high.
Since the start of the year, the average bid:offer spread of the Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 has narrowed, breaking out of this upward-trending channel and returning to below 8% for the first time since mid-2022. A narrow spread reflects alignment between buyer and seller expectations – their respective bids and offers drawing nearer to each other.
*The bid:offer spread here is calculated using only proprietary Liv-ex data – daily live bids and offers. In instances where there was no counterparty for a given bid or offer, the wine was excluded from the calculation of the average. On average, 42 lines were included in each day’s average. YTD, the average count is 46.
How does the spread effect trade?
With demand and supply out of balance in the market, highlighted by low bid:offer ratios, there remains a need to clear out an excess of stock. In recent weeks, narrowing spreads have been accompanied by increases in traded volumes. Less than three weeks into February, higher volumes of the Fine Wine 50’s components have changed hands than across the whole of January, which itself saw 33.8% more traded than in December. February is on course to see the highest volumes of the Fine Wine 50 trade since July 2021.
Château Mouton Rothschild 2019 boasts the tightest spread of the Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 – 0.5%. Prices are consolidating just above its ex-London release price (£3,588 per 12×75). Since December 2024, its price has held around £3,600.
Liv-ex trades of Château Mouton Rothschild 2019
Château Margaux 2019 has the second tightest spread. Having seen minimal trade over December and January, it is now changing hands with relative frequency. Buyers appear to be finding value at its 2021 lows, around £4,280 per 12×75.
Liv-ex trades of Château Margaux 2019
Margaux is not alone – the 2019 vintage of Lafite, Haut-Brion and Mouton have current spreads of 3.0%, 1.9% and 0.6%. While the market appears to have agreed on the right price for the 2019s, buyers and sellers sit further apart on other vintages, such as the less sought-after 2013. As of Wednesday 19th the 2013 Fine Wine 50 components had an average spread of 28.2%.
Liv-ex analysis is drawn from the world’s most comprehensive database of fine wine prices. The data reflects the real-time activity of Liv-ex’s 620+ merchant members from across the globe. Together they represent the largest pool of liquidity in the world – currently £100m of bids and offers across 20,000 wines.
