What’s happening in the market?
Fattoria le Pupille’s Saffredi 2021 is the top-traded wine of the week so far, changing hands in high volumes at £564 per 12×75.
Château Lafite Rothschild 2009 traded several times earlier this week in original packaging at £5,914 per 12×75, just below its ex-château release price of 600 eur/btl (equivalent to £5,976 using the current exchange rate).
Today’s deep dive: which price levels draw demand?
Across Liv-ex’s major indices, bid-to-offer ratios are down, and yet, some wines are seeing consistent or increasing volumes traded month-on-month. While the market is undoubtedly bearish, prices are, in some cases, falling low enough to attract buyers. Considering the Bordeaux 500’s component wines, how low have prices had to fall to reinvigorate demand?
Of the 20 wines in the Bordeaux 500 that have seen two consecutive month-on-month increases in traded volumes, 19 last traded below their ex-London release prices. The only exception here was Château Mouton Rothschild 2014, which is now trading around its 2021 lows. Pontet-Canet 2014 is trading increasingly frequently 7% below its ex-London release price, in line with its April 2021 trade prices.
Liv-ex trades of Château Mouton Rothschild 2014
Liv-ex trades of Château Pontet Canet 2014
More mature vintages appear to stabilise more reliably at technical support levels (i.e. the 100% retracement zone), likely because the market has had time to correct and structure their price movements.
Of the 20 Bordeaux 500 wines with two month-on-month volume increases, six hail from the 2019 vintage. We are seeing demand increase for the 2019s below their ex-London prices, but above or only slightly below their ex-négociant prices. Prices may be finding support in this zone thanks to fair initial release pricing.
Recent vintages that were released at high prices, however, are not finding demand in this area. Château Pavie 2020, for example, has seen traded volumes increase by 100% month-on-month and trade price volatility decrease as trade prices have crossed below the ex-château threshold (200 €/btl — equivalent to £2,064 at the time of release and £1,992 currently).
Liv-ex trades of Pavie 2020
Carruades de Lafite 2020 has seen the largest month-on-month increases in traded volumes since the start of August – an average growth rate of 363%. The wine did not trade between the start of February 2024 and the start of August 2024. During this time, its Market Price fell, presumably as merchants attempted to find buyers. It traded flat on its ex-négociant release price in late August and has since traded regularly between £1,580 and £1,660 per 12×75. It appears that for Carruades 2020, a drop below ex-négociant release price spurred demand. More often than not, sellers have triggered transactions, bringing down their offers to meet buyers where they are.
Liv-ex trades of Carruades de Lafite 2020
For well-released recent vintages, it would appear that the zone between ex-négociant and ex-London prices is providing some support. For wines that were initially overpriced, ex-château may be the threshold to look out for.
Liv-ex analysis is drawn from the world’s most comprehensive database of fine wine prices. The data reflects the real-time activity of Liv-ex’s 620+ merchant members from across the globe. Together they represent the largest pool of liquidity in the world – currently £100m of bids and offers across 20,000 wines.
