In April, we challenged Liv-ex members – 400 of the world’s biggest buyers and sellers of fine wine – to predict Bordeaux 2018 release prices for a basket of wines. We published their overall thoughts on the vintage here.
Now that all the wines have been released, we can look at how their predictions compared to reality. On average, merchants predicted that the basket of wines would cost €2,156.98. In reality, the Chateaux released their wines at €2,178.40, just 0.99% higher the prices expected by Liv-ex members on average.
Of the wines, Montrose and Mission Haut Brion were the biggest surprises. Montrose 2018 was released at €126.4 per bottle ex-negociant, up 22.9% on what merchants predicted (€102.80). Mission Haut Brion, on the other hand, came out at €252 per bottle ex-negociant, down 16.7% on merchant predictions (€302.54).
Other surprises also included Cos d’Estournel (19.4%), Pichon Lalande (16.8%) and Pontet Canet (-13.5%).
Pavie was the most accurately predicted wine. On average, Liv-ex members expected that it would be released at €282.28 per bottle ex-negociant, just 28 cents more than its actual release price of €282.
Congratulations to the winner of a jeroboam of Beaucastel 2010, whose overall predictions were out by just 0.22%.
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