Liv-ex members are expecting the fine wine market to rise further in 2018, according to the results of a survey conducted in March.
On average, respondents expect the industry benchmark Liv-ex 100 index to increase by 3.7% this year to close on 324.48. This would represent a third year of gains for the market.
So far, the index has fallen slightly every month in 2018. It is currently down 0.6%.
The vast majority of respondents expect the index to move upwards. 75% of those surveyed predicted that the index will rise; just 17% think it will fall. A small handful expect it to run completely flat.
The most optimistic respondent expects gains of 16%; the most pessimistic predicts a drop of 7%.
In 2017, members overestimated price rises for the year, but only just. Their average prediction was for gains of 7.8%. The reality was an increase of 5.7%.
This year, we also asked merchants to predict the top three performing sub-indices of the Liv-ex 1000.
The majority merchants expect the Burgundy 150 to once again outperform the market. 76% of those surveyed picked it as their first choice. The remaining, 24% of respondents predicted it would place 2nd or 3rd.
21% believe the Bordeaux Legends 50 will be the top performer, while 18% voted for the Italy 100.
The best performing sub-indices in 2017 were the Burgundy 150, Rest of the World 50 and the Italy 100.
To view the list of wines that make up the Liv-ex 1000 sub-indices, click here.
Liv-ex members represent the largest pool of professional fine wine traders in the world. Its 440-strong member base is estimated to account for 95% of fine wine turnover globally.
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